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Category Archives: Tools of the Trade

Gambler’s Fallacy

Friday, May 16, 2008

Wikipedia
The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the false belief that the probability of an event in a random sequence is dependent on preceding events, its probability increasing with each successive occasion on which it fails to occur. If a fair coin is [...]

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Market Science, Psychology, and Psychosis

Monday, May 5, 2008

Learning from our mistakes? Flies can do it. Lots of Animals Learn, but Smarter Isn’t Better
It takes just 15 generations under these conditions for the flies to become genetically programmed to learn better. At the beginning of the experiment, the flies take many hours to learn the difference between the normal and quinine-spiked [...]

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